vlo

It's Monday morning. Looking at the boards, the dollar is weaker and gold climbs to another record high. Spot gold in London traded at $1,133.07 per ounce. The December gold futures contract traded at $1,133.50 per ounce.

Again today, the dollar traded down, with the December dollar contract trading at 75.105, down 32 (prices as of 8:39 EDT). The other precious metals followed gold higher. December silver traded at $17.815 per ounce up 43.5 cents. Platinum was at $1,428.90 per ounce, up $41.20. Palladium traded at $365.15, up $8.40

We've had wet weather in the Midwest during the harvest season, resulting in higher grain prices.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued a report on wholesale crop prices paid to farmers. Let's look at some prices:

• Corn rose 29 cents per bushel to $3.54
• Wheat jumped 8 cents per bushel to $4.56
• Soybeans dropped 1 cent per bushel to $9.74
• Wholesale milk prices jumped 7.1% in October to $1.19 per gallon. Milk prices, however are down 22% from last year.

"Brazil has long been our favorite of the BRIC countries," says Carl Delfeld. In his Chartwell Global Wealth Letter, the advisor looks at two favored Brazilian equity ETFs.

"Brazil seems to have confounded its critics, who view it as a boom and bust economy; the country has been upgraded to investment grade status by Moody's.

"The US ratings agency cited the resilience of the Brazilian economy to the financial crisis for the upgrade of its sovereign debt ratings one notch to Baa3, its lowest investment grade rating.

"This elevation of quality is well earned after years of reform in the country that led to lower inflation and a stronger currency as well as lower levels of government debt.

Wow! What a difference a few hours makes. At the beginning of trading today stocks and commodities were steady. Then as the morning wore on, the US dollar strengthened and it all broke loose. Let's look at the numbers: (as of 1:29 EDT)

• US dollar December futures contract traded at 76.125, up .525 (the US dollar is based on a basket of currencies.)
• December euro is at 1.4866, down .0134
• The December S & P contract is down 10.60 at 1066.30
• December crude oil is at $78.40 per barrel, down $2.10
• December 30 year bond is at 118.10, down 23.
• December wheat is at 530.6 down 17 cents (each penny equals $50.00)
• December gold is at $1043.40 per ounce, down $13.00 (each $1.00 equals $100.00)

"Water, one of the most precious of resources, continues to be the most mispriced," says Neil George.

In his Profits Hidden in the News advisory, he explains, "Millions of Americans are drinking dangerous water from the tap." Here, he looks at two ways to profit as this situation gains attention.

"The US Environmental Protection Agency has recently updated its data on US municipal water and, as with previous surveys and reports - the news is not good. In fact, for wide swaths of the US population - including those in the nation's capital - its flat out scary.

What is the Beige Book and what does it contain? The US Federal Reserve keeps anecdotal reports on the economy in what is called the "Beige Book." Here are some notes on the key topics:

• There was some improvement in two of the hardest hit areas -- residential real estate and manufacturing.
• Gains in economic activity generally outnumbered declines.
• "Grim" was how the Fed described commercial real estate, "with conditions described as either weak or deteriorating across all districts." Regional banks said they did not see improvement in commercial real estate going forward into 2010.

The Australian move to raise interest rates sparked a surge in commodity prices, led by agricultural futures.Why is this?

The interest rate hike signaled that "all is well" in world economies, at least for the time being. So, if deflation is on the run, inflation can take over and that is happening in spades in the futures markets. Let's look at some prices:

• December wheat is at $4.63 per bushel up 20.2 cents (each penny equals $50.00)
• December corn is $3.64 per bushel, up 23.2 cents
• November soybeans are at $9.07 per bushel up 22.4 cents
• November crude oil is at $71.73 per barrel up $1.32
• December S & P is at 1052.50 up 16.10
• December Dow is at 9673 up 127
• October cattle are at 82.40 down .275
• October hogs are at 49.97 cents per pound up .925
• December gold is at $1044 per ounce up $26.60 (each $1.00 equals $100 dollars)
• December silver is at $17.43 per ounce up 89 cents

Agricultural manufacturer Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) is trading slightly lower in after hours trading this afternoon after the company posted lower than expected earnings for its fiscal first quarter.

Going into this afternoon's release, analysts had been expecting to see the company show earnings of 35 cents per share, but the company came in well below this estimate, with actual earnings of just 23 cents per share. During the same period last year the company had earnings of $2.65 per share.

"There's a misconception out there about PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP); all too often, it's viewed as a stodgy soft drink company, fully reliant on its namesake soda line," says money manager and newsletter advisor Jim Stack.

In his InvesTech Market Analyst, he suggests, "In reality, PepsiCo owns some of the most sought after brands in the world, including Gatorade, Tropicana, Frito-Lay and Doritos." Here's his review of the company and its outlook.

"PepsiCo does business in more than 200 countries worldwide, including key emerging market economies like China and India and, perhaps most important of all, it's a growth company with analysts expecting long-term future earnings growth of 10-12% per year.

"I'm often drawn to companies that fly 'under the radar' or are misunderstood by investors, such as Del Monte Foods (NYSE: DLM)," says Chuck Carlson in his The DRIP Investor.

"Most people recognize the Del Monte name and the company's brands in the fruit and vegetable business. But did you know that Del Monte is also home to some of the most popular pet-food brands in the marketplace?

"Profits have been solid in recent quarters, and growth should continue in 2010. An improving ?nancial position and a rising dividend round out the appeal.

Why worry about the corn market, you say? Well corn cereals, corn oil and corn products that depend on corn are sensitive to the price of corn. Add to this mix the fact that we still have an ethanol program in place that is taking 15% of the crop, and you have the hair trigger that drove corn and grain prices sharply higher yesterday.

There was a rumor that we are having an early frost next week. That's number one. Now, add to this the fact that only 12% of the corn crop is "mature" compared to 37% last year and off we go. Then, too, you've had big speculators that have been short for some time.

"We rate both Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) and Canada's CN Rail (NYSE: CNI) as buys," says analyst Tom Slee.

The contributing editor to Gordon Pape's Internet Wealth Builder suggetss, "Burlington Northern remains my number one pick in the sector but CN is excellent value at these levels." Here's his bullish review.

"Burlington Northern Santa Fe had a relatively good second quarter, posting earnings of $1.18 a share. This is down from $1.34 in 2008 but beat the consensus estimate of $1.01.

"Year-over-year revenues fell 26% although this was offset by a 33% reduction in costs as a result of tighter controls and lower energy prices.

"Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ: GMCR) recently reported an outstanding second quarter," notes growth stock expert Michael Cintolo in The Cabot Market Letter.

The advisor explains, "Initially after the earnings report, the stock fell following its report, supposedly because revenue growth was light. But we think focusing on that detail misses the big picture.

"First, revenue growth is still accelerating; the second quarter's rose 61% from a year ago, compared to 60%, 56% and 45% growth the prior three quarters.

With the Shanghai index plunging 20.6% last week, some China small-cap stocks are now trading at attractive valuations. One of my favorites is China Green Agriculture (AMEX: CGA).

China Green Agriculture is fertilizer company based in Xian, China that has been on the rise. Shares are up 286% year-to-date as investors gobbled up the stock. The most recent financial results, released in May, showed a 99% increase in revenues, and a similarly impressive 133% increase in net income.

"Both short and long-term factos suggest higher agricultural prices," says Leonard Goodall in No-Load Portfolios. Here, the fund expert looks at a pair of agriculture-based ETFs.

"Bad weather through the country has had a negative impact on the agriculture sector. Rain and flooding in the plains states has caused a delay in harvesting the winter wheat crop and other grains are behind in their normal growing season.

"Moreover, current grain supplies are low as compared with demand. These factors point to the possibility of higher grain prices in the months to come.