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Before the bell: Futures lower ahead of jobs report

U.S. stock futures were a little lower Friday ahead of the release of one of the worse expected jobs reports. Stocks declined Friday despite an upside surprise in weekly jobless claims as negative corporate news just kept hitting the market. Futures remained near Thursday's lows.

Overseas, markets were mostly lower Friday despite rate cuts in Europe. Investors, it seems, were more concerned about the critical U.S. employment report. With further bad news on the economic front that is bound to lower demand for crude, oil continued to trade near four-year lows.

Leaders are acting, or pledging to act as the U.S. and China pledged Friday to work together to tackle global financial turmoil.

The Labor Department will release the November jobs report Friday at 8:30 am. It is expected to show further deterioration of the employment market and at an alarming rate. The unemployment rate likely climbed to 6.8% from 6.5% in October, which would be the worst showing in 15 years. Employers probably cut another 320,000 last month, which would represent the deepest cut to monthly payrolls since October 2001. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect a decline of 350,000 jobs, which would be the largest loss since 431,000 jobs were lost in May 1980.

Energy Transfer Equity (ETE): Pipeline to profits?

"Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE), a major player in the midstream energy sector, is a cash-producing machine," says value investor Nathan Slaughter.

The editor of Half-Priced Stocks explains, "Even more promising, those who know the company best -- the CEO and one of its co-funders -- have been voting with their wallets lately." here's his review of the income holding.

"The company -- a master limited partnership (MLP) -- owns over 17,000 miles of natural gas pipelines in several states, including the largest network serving the prolific gas basins of Texas.

MLPs come in two classes: general partner and limited partner. The general partner (GP) typically handles all of the day-to-day operations and in return gets a cut of the distributions that are dished out to the limited partners (LP).

"In this case, the General Partner is Energy Transfer Equity, our recommendation, which should not be confused with the Liimted Partner -- Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP).

"Energy Transfer Equity owns all the General Partner interests -- as well as 62.5 million LP units (46%) of ETP. All of which is a convoluted way of saying that ETE unitholders can expect to be showered with cash.

Continue reading Energy Transfer Equity (ETE): Pipeline to profits?

Merrill says oil may fall below $25 next year amid global recession

If economist David H. Wang had predicted earlier this year that oil would fall to $40 per barrel in 2009, "I would have lost my reputation as an economist in standing," he said.

Or, "they would have probably said I was in need of 24-hour observation," he added.

Well, $40-per-barrel oil in 2009 doesn't appear to be that outlandish now. In fact, in the view of one research operation, it looks downright high.

Merrill Lynch said oil may fall below $25 per barrel in 2009 as a global recession takes hold, Bloomberg News reported Thursday, reducing demand for the world's most important commodity.

The dreaded China slowdown


Equally significant, the global recession may further slow China's economy, creating an even larger surplus in key commodities. Further, even though Merrill reiterated its November forecast that oil futures will average $50 per barrel in 2009, Wang said if China's GDP growth, currently in the 6-8% slows to 5% or below, all bets are off regarding commodity prices.

"Today's oil prices assume continued, solid, if not double-digit growth in China," Wang said. "If China's economy slows further, and we start see real year-over-year declines in oil consumption in China, not just cuts in the level of oil consumption growth, oil prices will fall well below $40 and that $25 forecast will come into view."

Oil dipped 44 cents to $46.35 per barrel in Thursday morning trading. Oil has fallen a stunning $100 since hitting a record high of $147.27 per barrel last summer.

Continue reading Merrill says oil may fall below $25 next year amid global recession

Could oil go as low as $40?

Oil traders believe the price of oil could fall below $40 per barrel by the end of the year. Whoever drove prices up to $147.27 per barrel taught the oil industry a valuable lesson in demand destruction that they should have learned during the oil shocks of the 70s. I can still remember waiting in long lines just to get gas in the late 70s.

After the two oil shocks of the 70s, people did the same thing they are doing now -- bought smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles, thereby reducing demand for many years to come. While there is little doubt in my mind that eventually, as the economic recovery begins to take hold, oil prices will again be driven up to $100 per barrel, it will probably take a few of years.

We'll probably go through a similar cycle as we did in the 70s and 80s. OPEC already is threatening to reduce output. Drilling and exploration projects will be postponed or canceled because the economic incentive to find new oil has been reduced by the prospect of lower gains. Demand will eventually exceed supply as the economy recovers and pressure again is put on available supplies.

Remember, oil is not a renewable source. If the world were smart during this time of lower prices we'd develop alternatives to this nonrenewable source, but I doubt we will. And so, before we know it, oil will again climb to new heights and help cause the same economic destruction it did this time. But the next time, it might actually hit $200 per barrel and create even more havoc on the economic markets.

Lita Epstein has written more than 25 books including the "Complete Idiot's Guide to the Politics of Oil."

Before the bell: Futures lower with automakers, retailers in focus

U.S. stock futures were mixed and little changed Thursday morning, as investors await for yet another day of the Big Three on Capitol Hill testifying in front of Congress as they ask for a $34 billion bailout. Retailers will also be in focus today as they report November sales, which no one really expect will be anything to cheer about. Analysts expect retailers to post a 2.4% decline overall.

Overseas, Asian markets finished mostly lower, erasing earlier gains. In Europe, stocks were higher as investors awaited decision on interest rates. So far, the Bank of England cut rates by a full percentage point to 2%, the lowest level since 1939.

Meanwhile, oil prices sank Thursday to lows last seen nearly four years ago as concern over demand for the crude grew with more bleak news from the world's largest economy. Some now think crude could tumble below $40 by the end of the year.

Also, some economic reports are due out today: Before the market open, a report on weekly jobless claims will be released, a day after the ADP private sector job report and a day ahead of the government's nonfarm payroll release. At 10 a.m. EST, October factory orders is due and is expected to show further decline.

[update 8:35: Futures have turned much lower as morning progressed and more news of layoffs, lowered guidances and abysmal retail sales reports hit the wire.]

What happened to ethanol?

This post was writtenby Minyanville contributor Ryan Krueger.

Looks like Verasun Energy Corp. (NYSE: VSE), a formerly popular ethanol stock and second largest producer, has won court permission to cancel contracts signed to purchase corn. It is now in bankruptcy. I'm also hearing about a lot of excess ethanol funded by your tax dollars being sold to other countries. That worked out well.

The mistaken policy and debates are endless, the trades are what I am chewing on instead. I think consumers of corn at lower prices are set up for some awfully tasty '09 comparisons for their bottom lines. Corn Products International, Inc. (NYSE: CPO), after Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) backed away from its take-over, is a name I have re-entered from the long side after closing out my position just after the non-merger was announced and shares traded twice what they are now. They sweeten something you'll eat or drink in the next hour.

Longer term, however, I am even more interested in the ingredients, not the end products. But it's still early. I have been long gone from 2008 corn contracts for quite some time, but am starting to poke around out on the futures curve. On the same day this court ruling was announced abolishing artificial demand, quiet real demand emerged as Mexico was a big buyer of corn.

I'll take a few billion eaters over several million drivers any day.

Before the bell: Stocks to retreat on economic concerns

U.S. stock futures were lower Wednesday morning, seeming unlikely to continue Tuesday's rally as a warning from Research in Motion only added to economic concerns that will be in focus today as more indicators are released.

Overseas, global stock indexes were mixed with most major Asian markets finishing in positive territory, but with European markets trading lower by midday. Meanwhile, oil prices rebounded slightly from a three-year low back near $48 a barrel. Weekly inventory report is due out today.

Several economic indicators will be released today: First, a little after 8 am, ADP's estimate for November employment is due. Then, at 8:30 am, a revision to third-quarter productivity will be released. At 10 am, the November reading of the Institute of Supply Management's non-manufacturing index, a barometer of the services sector, will be reported. It is expected to contract further. Finally, at 2 pm, the Fed's Beige Book will be made public. The book contains more evidence on the economy.

Once again, OPEC has killed the goose that lays the golden egg

History is repeating itself, at least in the oil market.

Once again, a miscalculation by OPEC -- probably motivated by greed or rational self interest carried to its logical (but foolish) extension -- has resulted in almost the same set of market conditions that resulted when OPEC made the same mistake in 1990-1991.

Then, following the Persian Gulf War in 1990, OPEC increased production only grudgingly, in an attempt to hang onto sky-high oil prices of about $55-60 per barrel. (Or about $120 in today's dollars.) The result? A U.S. recession and a consequent collapse in oil demand, and in oil's price: oil first fell below $40, then $30 on its way to trading below $13 per barrel in 1998. Thirteen dollars a barrel in nineteen ninety-eight.

Those who fail to learn from history...

Fast forward to 2007. OPEC has an opportunity to at least slow, if not reverse the steady rise in oil prices, which were then testing $90. However, despite the fact that oil shocks have preceded every U.S. recession since 1972, except the post-September 11, 2001 recession, OPEC does nothing.

In fact, as the price of oil continued to spiral to dizzier and dizzier heights, OPEC meetings served as information dissemination opportunities to blame the rising price on anything but a lack of increased OPEC production: the weak dollar, geopolitical concerns, investors who view oil as a performing asset, and so on. In fact, what OPEC was doing during this phase of the oil cycle was, yet again, testing the limits of the market: i.e., to determine the maximum price the market could bear, in order to maximize revenue for oil-producing nations. Or, in other words, OPEC members were repeating the mistakes of 1990-1991.

Continue reading Once again, OPEC has killed the goose that lays the golden egg

Do lower oil prices save the economy?

Oil is trading around $50 a barrel. Gas prices are about $1.80 and could drop another dime or two. That is a long way from the $4.15 drivers were paying in the summer.

A family of modest means, making perhaps $35,000 a year, might have a mortgage of $500 a month. After taxes, the family's real income is probably less than $2,200 a month. Father and mother both drive to work: round-trip, 20 miles each, every day. The difference between $4.15 gas and $1.60 could be as much as $500 a month if each of them use about 100 gallons of gas a month.

Welcome to the lower gas price economy. For people who use home heating oil the difference is even more profound.

OPEC's plan to keep oil prices where they are could go a long way to saving the U.S. economy. The family that spends $500 a month less on gas has an easier time making mortgage payments and is less likely to slip into default or foreclosure. That family might even have a little money to spend on holiday gifts.

The next time you run into an OPEC minister on the street, shake his hand and thank him.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Before the bell: Wall Street headed higher; automakers, retailers in focus

U.S. stock futures were higher Tuesday morning, a day after stocks returned most of last week's gains as the Dow dropped 680 points -- one of its worse ever.

Automakers will be in focus today as no only do they return to Capitol Hill armed with a plan this time as they ask for aid, they will also release November sales. Analysts expect to see large sales declines.

Overseas, Asian markets sank following Wall Street's deep selloff, with the Nikkei dropping below 8,000. European stocks, however, were little changed as indications grew of a modest rebound on Wall Street.

Oil prices continued Monday's retreat, falling to a 3-year low below $48 a barrel Tuesday as the U.S. economic news combined with the savage selloff in the stock market gave a bleak picture for future demand.

The retail industry will also be in focus today as several retailers are scheduled to report earnings. Sears had already reported it had swung to a loss.

Before the bell: Stocks to start December lower

U.S. stock futures were much lower Monday morning, indicating stocks could start December on a down note, putting a stop to last week's rally as the gloomy economic conditions once again take precedent. The holiday shopping season kicked off in what some called a modest start and some a strong start. While consumers may have actually spent more this weekend over last year's weekend, they had completed a larger portion of their shopping. With the deep discounts offered, holiday season sales may not surprise on the up side at all.

Overseas, Asian and European markets fell Monday as investors digested signs of the U.S. holiday shopping season start over the Thanksgiving weekend. Meanwhile, crude oil fell below $52 a barrel after the OPEC deferred a decision to reduce output for another two weeks.

On the economic front today, the Institute of Supply Manufacturing in November is due and economist expect a worsening. October construction spending is also due out today.

Big OPEC meeting goes nowhere

With oil moving toward $50 a barrel, it would be fair to assume the OPEC would push to tighten supplies as soon as possible. Some of its members, particularly Venezuela and Iran, say that their national economies are suffering now that oil is well down from summer prices, which ran over $120 for some time.

But, OPEC cannot gets its act together. At its meeting this weekend, plans to cut supplies to increase prices fell off the rails.

According to Reuters, "OPEC on Saturday deferred a decision on a new oil supply cut amid signs that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are demanding tighter adherence to restraints put in place over the past two months."

The fighting within the cartel is remarkably good news for big Western economies, China, and India. Higher oil prices would push regions that are already weak into a deeper recession.

Since oil and gas prices helped slowdown many national economies, it is only fitting that relief could be a keep factor to giving consumers, particularly those in the U.S., a chance to pay their gasoline costs and their mortgages instead of having to pick one or the other.

The OPEC "non-decision" may be the only good economic news this quarter.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com

Before the bell: Stocks could start lower on Black Friday

U.S. stock futures were lower Friday, a day after Thanksgiving holiday. Trading session will be short today as stock markets close at 1:00 p.m. EST. On a day known as Black Friday, where the holiday shopping season "officially" begins (as retailers move out of the "red," or losses, and into the black, meaning profits), many will focus on the retail sector.

Overseas, Asian markets finished the session higher mostly. Indian shares rallied as trading resumed following the terrorist attacks in Mumbai that left 143 people dead. European shares were lower in morning trading. In Europe, stocks traded moderately lower as Europe's inflation rate fell by 2.1%, the most in almost two decades, and unemployment increased.

Meanwhile, oil prices fell below $54 a barrel Friday due to gloomy outlook for global crude demand that overshadowed expected OPEC production cut.

Why food prices could rise 9% in 2009 and how Kellogg could profit

You might think that since consumer prices have tumbled by near record percentages that this might lead to lower food prices. But much of that consumer price decline is attributable to lower energy prices -- after all oil peaked at $147 a barrel in July only to fall 63.5% to $53.63 yesterday.

Why won't food prices follow oil down? Many food producers panicked as corn and wheat prices peaked this summer -- locking in long term supply contracts at top prices. For instance, corn, which usually trades at $2 or $3 a bushel, pealed at $8 a bushel in June.

Although prices have since dropped to $3.50 a bushel, some food manufacturers locked in prices for corn and other commodities in the spring and summer, fearing that prices could go even higher. The result is that producers will pass on those higher costs in the form of food prices going up 7% to 9% in 2009.

Continue reading Why food prices could rise 9% in 2009 and how Kellogg could profit

Oil gets a bounce from anticipated rise in Chinese demand

Oil prices got a boost today from the news of a large interest rate cut in China, which analysts believe should have the result of lifting oil demand for the country.

China is doing all it can to keep its booming economic growth alive. The country announced its largest interest rate cut in 11 years, as the People's Bank of China slashed rates by 1.08 percentage points.

Oil prices, which have been in a virtual free fall since their record high levels over the summer, moved up as high as $52.76 earlier in the session, and are now trading up $1.40 a barrel to $51.75.

The move by China should help the country rebound from the current slowdown it is seeing in economic growth. The massive expansion of the economies in China and India are a major reason why oil prices moved so much higher in the past couple years, and if today's announced cuts have the intended effect of increasing economic activity, then the country should indeed see an increase in its thirst for oil.

Continue reading Oil gets a bounce from anticipated rise in Chinese demand

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-145.918,230.33
NASDAQ-22.971,422.59
S&P 500-15.60829.62

Last updated: December 05, 2008: 10:00 AM

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