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Corrections, seasonality and Santa Claus

"Is a stock market correction imminent?" asks market historian, timer and money manager Jim Stack.

In his Investech Market Analyst, he answers, "Yes. But, actually, one could answer that question the same way at almost any stage of every bull market in history. Corrections are always imminent in bull markets, with the only question being how severe the next correction will be."

Here, he looks at the market's history to help forecast both the likelihood of an upcoming correction as well as the historical evidence for a "Santa Claus rally."

Continue reading Corrections, seasonality and Santa Claus

Ciena: Recent dip suggests year-end profit-taking

Ciena Corp.'s (CIEN) stock has underperformed since the May 19, 2009 Buy recommendation at $11.27, but I'm sticking with the shares. Here's why:

Much of the selling in broadband/bandwith play CIEN's shares has occurred ahead of its December 10 Q4 earnings report, and given that CIEN is likely to post year-over-year improving results despite a loss for the quarter, the selling suggests that some short-term institutional investors (IIs) are taking profits 'ahead of the quarter, ahead of the pack.' Keep in mind that Ciena traded at/near $5 earlier this year.

Continue reading Ciena: Recent dip suggests year-end profit-taking

Harris (HRS): Defense stock thrives 'under the radar'

"Technology stocks are helping drive the stock market higher; one under-the-radar quality tech issue is Harris Corp. (HRS)," says Brandon Clay.

In his Invest with an Edge, he observes, "This company is proving a tech company doesn't need to do anything flashy to generate flashy returns.

The advisor continues, "At its core, Florida-based Harris is an information technology company. Admittedly, this is a stodgy area in the tech world, but don't let that deter you. There's a lot to like with Harris. For instance, the U.S. government is one of the company's biggest customers.

Continue reading Harris (HRS): Defense stock thrives 'under the radar'

eBay: Pull-back is buy opportunity

Look for eBay (EBAY) to more than hold its own this holiday season, which is one major reason I'm reiterating my buy rating for the company, first recommended on May 14, 2009, at a price of $16.84. If you bought EBAY in May, you're up about 40%.

Earlier this year, eBay sold a 70% stake in Skype for about $2.75 billion, enabling the company to focus on core operations at eBay and at PayPal.

Continue reading eBay: Pull-back is buy opportunity

Two favorites in China travel sector

"The Chinese people's growing appetite for travel is a big story and it has put two Chinese stocks into our current list of our top ten stock ideas," says technical and fundamental stock expert Mike Cintolo. In his The Cabot Top Ten Report, he takes a look at Home Inns (HMIN) and Ctrip.com (CTRP).

Cintolo explains, "Ctrip.com is la Chinese online search engine that has taken a U.S. Web business (in this case Expedia) and translated it to suit Chinese tastes.

"The company started by aggregating hotel vacancies and offering them online at a discount. Now, Ctrip.com has broadened its offerings to include airline tickets and packaged tours inside China.

Continue reading Two favorites in China travel sector

Cramer on BloggingStocks: This bullish retail story looks like a good fit

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says you can't ignore the positive outlook of Phillips-Van Heusen's CEO.

Can you be as bearish about retail if the company that has almost half the dress shirt business in the country, the one that has more than half the neckwear in this country, the one that has more than 600 stores and is in Kohl's (KSS) (Cramer's Take), Wal-Mart (WMT) (Cramer's Take), Sears (SHLD) (Cramer's Take) and just about everyone else, tells you that things are booming?

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: This bullish retail story looks like a good fit

O'Reilly Automotive: A used car maintenance play

The used car trend in the United States isn't ending anytime soon, which is why I'm reiterating my buy rating for auto parts giant O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY), first recommended on May 18, 2009 at a price of $37.02.

One argument holds that frugal consumers in U.S. will delay getting maintenance done on their used vehicles, due to tight budgets. But that delay can only occur for so long: critical maintenance must be performed, eventually. Further, the U.S. auto fleet's increasing age provides another tailwind for ORLY's sales. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for ORLY are $2.24 to $2.59.

Continue reading O'Reilly Automotive: A used car maintenance play

With Lowe's, $20 could be the low stock price for 2010

Lowe's (LOW) stock has meandered since the September 16, 2009 Buy rating at $21.60 per share, but I'm nevertheless reiterating my buy rating. Here's why:

Lowe's has now posted three straight less-worse-than-expected quarterly earning performances, and the view from here argues that both home improvement revenue, and more broadly, U.S. home sales (new and existing) have bottomed, providing an adequate tailwind for the stock. Further, any higher-than-expected store traffic in 2010 will be a bonus. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for LOW are $1.22 to $1.35.

Continue reading With Lowe's, $20 could be the low stock price for 2010

Baxter (BAX): Bank on blood products

"Baxter International (BAX) benefits from a robust balance sheet, solid operating momentum, and rising earnings estimates," says blue chip advisor Richard Moroney in Dow Theory Forecasts.

The advisor explains, "The first company to commercially prepare intravenous treatments, Baxter has manufactured and distributed medical products since 1931. It primarily works with blood and plasma, a business with recession-resistant tendencies.

"Its BioScience unit produces clotting agents for hemophilia and biotech drugs that treat both immune deficiencies and cancer.

Continue reading Baxter (BAX): Bank on blood products

Anadarko: Well-positioned for the oil/natural gas boom

So much for oil plummeting to $30 per barrel on a supply glut. The price of oil, the world's most vital commodity, is currently largely divorced from supply/demand fundamentals, and that's one reason I'm reiterating my buy rating for oil/natural gas company Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC), first recommended on May 14, 2009. at a price of $43.55. If you bought APC in May, you're up about 45%.

Look for APC to post a 2% to 4% production increase in FY2009, followed by a 4% to 5% rise in FY2010. Further, institutional investors are looking past this year's likely bottom-line loss, and toward better quarters in FY2010 -- which is a major reason Anadarko's stock is up substantially since May.

Continue reading Anadarko: Well-positioned for the oil/natural gas boom

Activision Blizzard (ATVI): 10 reasons to buy

"As a conservative long-term oriented investor I tend to keep individual position sizes to no more than 5% of the overall portfolio; however in the case of Activision Blizzard (ATVI), I'm building a more concentrated position that I expect to pay off in the next two to three years," says Asif Suria.

In his The SINLetter advisory, he offers 10 reasons why he believes the stock is an attractive core long-term investment. He explains, "My goal is to eventually build this position until it represents 20% of my personal portfolio. Here are 10 reasons behind this decision.

1) Activision released the highly anticipated game Call of Duty: Modern Warefare 2 and racked up $310 million in sales from the United States and United Kingdom over a 24 hour period. With Christmas right around the corner, the final sales numbers for this edition of Call of Duty are going to be much bigger.

Continue reading Activision Blizzard (ATVI): 10 reasons to buy

TJX: Back up the truck

If you haven't already and you can tolerate moderate risk, now's the time to purchase shares of The TJX Companies (TJX) and I'm reiterating my buy rating, first recommended on June 22, 2009 at a price of $21.48. If you bought TJX in June, you're up about an impressive 80%.

Off-price family apparel and home fashion retailer TJX (operator of the T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods chains) is in the discount retail sweet spot: it's poised to gain market share in the era of the 'frugal consumer.'

Continue reading TJX: Back up the truck

Entergy: Pull-back is buy opportunity

Unlike France, the United States did not build nearly enough nuclear power plants in the last two decades of the 20th century to accommodate its power needs, and it will spend the next two decades playing catch-up, which is why I'm reiterating my buy rating for Entergy Corp. (ETR), first recommended on May 12, 2009, at a price of $74.31.

Entergy, the second largest nuclear power generator in the U.S. (30,000 megawatts) will be a part of that mix, with its regulated utilities likely to register average earnings per share growth of 5% to 7% over the next three years. Meanwhile, the planned spin-off of its non-utility-regulated nuclear business, called Enexus, holds the promise of even stronger revenue and earnings growth. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for ETR are $6.37 to $6.70.

Continue reading Entergy: Pull-back is buy opportunity

Nike is in an uptrend

After meandering for most of the summer, Nike Inc.'s (NKE) stock has accelerated above its 50-day moving average, and that's one reason I'm Reiterating my Buy rating for the company's shares, first recommended on May 12, 2009 at a price of $50.98. If you bought NKE in May, you're up about 27%.

Look for Nike to record a roughly 7-9% earnings gain in 2010, aided by emerging market sales gains. What's more, the major source of institutional investors's (IIs') concern this summer – U.S. sales – appears to be fading: 2010 U.S. sales will likely drop 2-3%, due to the continued 'frugal consumer' trend – a down year but certainly not a disaster, for NKE, which does about 60% of its business outside the U.S. The First Call FY2010/FY2011 EPS estimates for NKE are $3.65 to $4.01.

Continue reading Nike is in an uptrend

Chasing Value: Ten stocks for 2010 -- Part 5

The march toward year end continues as three more stocks are reviewed in a search for the eventual 2010 stock picks. This year there will be nine stocks with a new wrinkle, I will add one naked put.

These options have contributed to a mind-boggling return on my 2009 portfolio, exceeding 200% to date. This has been a very unusual year, and I bet against the rampant fear in the market. I will not pretend for a moment that this is repeatable. What I will do is share my opinions and investing adventure, hoping to stimulate investor interest and dialog.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Ten stocks for 2010 -- Part 5

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 26, 2009: 01:46 PM

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